@aleabitoreddit timeline

ASIC research report from Jan that I found interesting.

I don’t really mention AlChip much but there’s a lot of tam expansion opportunities if they want to M&A like Marvell. https://t.co/oaSMBgO72C

$TSM COUPE supplier idea:

Another is Xintech (3374) that I have exposure to.

This is $TSM’s testing subsidiary, currently trading at 255 ~$2.1B MC.

Biggest wonder was if they were linked to COUPE… otherwise I wouldn’t take positions.

But some report recently confirmed TSM’s vertical integration plans:

“TSMC is building a Silicon Photonics empire, aggressively pursuing Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) opportunities with subsidiaries **Xintec** and VisEra citing unnamed supply chain sources…

TSMC is expected to talk up its SiPho plans, including its COUPE platform May 14 (Thursday) at its Technology Symposium in Hsinchu, Taiwan.”

So that kinda seals the deal for me if they’re “aggressively pursuit opportunities”.

Derisked long anyway given $TSM owns it. Upside from COUPE?

Thought it was an interesting idea personally.

$LITE rode the first optical wave from $3B to $75B in 2 years time with EML and pluggables.

My thesis is $SIVE can do the same from $3B, with CPO/Pluggables and CW.

Sivers + GFS SiPH reference laser news, alongside the +54% increase today.

Is just one step of the way. https://t.co/Hfth69ZnYm

Tbh $XFAB lowkey reminds me of early $TSEM.

Just sub <$2B MC.

You basically never find a company with $NVDA and $NOK actively validating your pre-commercial silicon photonics foundry… (photonixFAB)

While getting CHIPS act/Gov grants to subsidize capex.

While leading the Europe’s effort to build a photonics supply chain.

Feels like that alone would justify valuations… but you get the power semi SiC/GaN operations for free too and all its assets.

CHIPS act 2 is coming out tomorrow, and $XFAB is listed in the photonics blueprints.

Did I miss something?

Or did markets miss something?

The most consequential event of an entire company’s history.

Got released today with a photonics player.

Making them the functional standard laser for CPO, Pluggables, and SiPH.

For companies like $NVDA, $AVGO, $AMD, to $MRVL using the foundry.

Does anyone know the name?

$NVDA Jensen Huang:

“ $MRVL the next $1T company ladies and gentlemen “.

Marvell is currently trading at $191B.

I have positions in Marvell… but how much faith do we have in Jensen for the 5x? https://t.co/II4DTZ5Z9D

Just a heads up, I've uncovered a bot farm with dozens of accounts used to spread disinformation about $SIVE in the past few days.

This illegal campaign likely stems geographically from Asia.

As these accounts were used to do marketing for the same Asian projects like Alchemy Pay. Or bought brand new bought X accounts.

All of which have no activity, but have an abrupt shift in timeline to repeating false claims about selling $SIVE positions and telling others to sell.

With some getting caught using AI prompts to create a negative reply.

This will be passed along to the SEC for investigation given there's certain traceability logs available.

While the regulators investigate, maybe not a good idea follow along false bot farm advice.

I never thought I’d see the day where $GOOGL needs to raise $80b for AI capex…

Then Warren Buffet’s $BRK.A is funding the hyperscaler AI buildout.

- $40B ATM, $30B offerings, Berkshire $10B

Upstream ecosystem from $LITE to $AVGO to Mediatek to $TSM to $MU should go brrr.

Not sure if the Google holders are though, given this massive capex scale isn’t as funded by FCF.

There's a new $SIVE short seller with 0 clue what they're talking about.

1. $MRVL Celestial is likely buying lasers directly with $SIVE as the laser supplier, not through $POET.

As they've been identified as a likely direct customer since 2023.

An analogy is if O-Net / Enablence / Sivers, and O-Net worked directly with $SIVE (which they have) but vertically integrated away Enablence.

They're still likely buying $SIVE lasers.

2. $SIVE is clearly the likely $AAPL supplier for lasers. I use the term likely, because although markets are 99% sure, the BOM is confidential.

The short seller is claiming it's TASC, which I've already identified multiple times as an Apple supplier.

But falsely they're conflating two different generations of Apple Watches with photodiodes and lasers for glucose monitoring to say $SIVE is not a supplier.

3. US NASDAQ listing is likely incoming soon after the new board meeting and shareholder vote.

Upgrading accounting standards and having immaterial changes doesn't mean anything.

4. Ayar labs hasn't scaled up yet. Ayar specifically listed $SIVE as their primary laser supplier in their website.

With their executives going out on statement that they couldn't built their products without $SIVE lasers.

Claiming $SIVE isn't shipping volume to Ayar when their CPO products haven't ramped is stupid.

5. There's zero leak around news for listing. Hilarious coincidence and management has always been pursuing NASDAQ listing since last year.

Short sellers keep repeating this disinformation to try and profit.

6. I've never seen such hilarious BS around Win Semi volume scaling. High confidence in SpaceX and $AVGO supply chain critical foundry.

7. Using arguments from authority saying they know an engineer and then having them confusing architectural differences between $LITE / $COHR and $SIVE is hilarious.

Regardless

-distorting financial statements
-conflating different gen architectures and timeline NRE
- reiterating false accusations

to profit off short term sentiment is likely going to see them turn into a long as CPO/Jabil partnerships volume ramp.

$NVDA, Siemens, and $FLNC develop reference power architectures for Vera Rubin N72.

This comes at the time FLNC has 2 likely hyperscaler deals coming up.

Just in case why you’re wondering it’s up 36%. https://t.co/8f4gAhJeTE

This is the biggest TAM expansion + revenue driver with $SIVE, markets haven’t noticed.

Sivers is actively working with new pluggable optical transceiver companies.

After Jabil 1.6T LRO used Sivers lasers to achieve a “relatively dramatic moat”.

“Actively working”, so co-development / qualification stage.

My guess is we’ll likely see optical transceiver companies (eg. Innolight), announce they’re using $SIVE lasers soon.

哇塞，就差最后 4000 个了。

我就能成为 X 平台订阅量第一名了。

仔细想想，一个做财经赛道的人……

尤其是还在做“分享 AI 供应链见解”这种如此垂直小众的内容，这事儿真的挺特别的。

竟然能坐上头把交椅？ https://t.co/GCrXsI8BeY

At $NVDA GTC/Computex in Taipei:

I think we’ll hear about the next AI bottleneck.

That’s owned by a .6 P/B potato farming company in Japan, with a 180 year history.

Their owner cooks those potatoes in night markets for 160 yen a piece.

But that same potato farming equipment used to grow potatoes with optimal sunlight.

Is now required for optical alignment requirements for CPO.

And their unique cooking technique is mandatory to address thermal requirements for Rubin.

Can anyone guess?

At Computex Taiwan, for new CPO exposure companies, always a good opportunity to find ideas:

Eg. 3362 Advanced Optoelectronic ~$477M with Largan Precision (3008) ~$14.6B

PMLA (microlens array) and FAU. Kinda reminds me of $HIMX / Foci

There’s a difference between sampling/demo stage though and having active customers, so need do more research beyond this.

Just a good starting research process

Okay chat, it’s been awhile since the previous one.

And a ton of names from $VPG to $ASPI cooked.

So crowdsourcing a new list:

What’s your highest conviction ticker that you think can 10x in a short timeframe, and why? https://t.co/Rt21dTMtDK

I wonder if my chokepoint investment theory…

With $AXTI to $SOI to $SIVE will be studied in future history books?

Regardless, I think everyone here is a part of making history.

Given Reuters to Institutions to Countries are reacting to supply chain game theory with Serenity.

I think $SIVE should just become a full American company, and use NASDAQ listing as the first step.

> US cap table / large ownership + US CHIPS act support already

> larger valuation premiums + M&A opportunities.

> local Swedish media blatant disinformation from underwater short sellers, isn’t helpful for AI photonics growth

> lot of more funding opportunities + support from US institutions / funds / indexes

By preserving EU efforts under a subsidiary and having a US parent company.

This helps Sivers become a major US optical player, not just a Swedish semi trying to explain itself to local markets that doesn’t understand.

I do think management sees a path forward for $SIVE to become the next dominant US photonics giant like $LITE.

The “You’re So Rich Now” $NVDA ETF.

These were just some of the supply chain partners Jensen made a toast to with that comment:

TSMC (https://t.co/klkdidhdwN / TSM) - $1.95T
Micron (MU) - $1.10T
Delta (https://t.co/QU9iDMM1OA) - $202.28B
Amphenol ( $APH )- $183.00B
Foxconn (https://t.co/aTlwrBvYTH) - $128.88B
Vertiv Holdings ( $VRT ) - $121.26B
Luxshare (https://t.co/HXnZe7hGCv) - $78.99B
STMicroelectronics ( $STM )- $61.60B
Unimicron (https://t.co/hpt0Ophv4o) - $52.90B
Asia Vital (https://t.co/RvcM9ecvSB) - $33.27B
Lite-On (https://t.co/m9p28o5iLO) - $16.97B
King Slide Works (https://t.co/KiNhmXtumB) - $15.35B
BizLink Holding (https://t.co/yNk855AwXy) - $12.95B
Megmeet Electrical (https://t.co/YdTe5Lhinp) - $10.78B
Innoscience (https://t.co/1unM4FPf65) - $8.30B
Chenbro Micom (https://t.co/8RU12cTJDW) - $5.44B
JPC (https://t.co/6EU7QhvSnh) - $1.15B
WUS Printed Circuit (https://t.co/52yoDEJ8Wh) - $972M

Everyone is out there making life changing returns on $RDDT.

Fully leveraged on the wrong $SPCE (Virgin Galactic) ticker.

Instead of $SPCX, which is yet to launch.

I guess this just goes to show how much retail demand there is for SpaceX’s IPO. https://t.co/AzcpV5fZ3P

Hot take: Given $MSFT laptops/PCs are now likely using $NVDA hardware.

They might have a shot of taking down $AAPL.

Only if Windows OS UI weren’t a flaming pile of garbage compared to how clean Apple OS is.

You would think a $3T company would know better UI design by now? https://t.co/OvysxCN21i

Yo no sé cuántas personas hablan español en X...

¿Es verdad este post?

Hablo un poco porque jugué fútbol en Mexico por dos o tres años

Voy a publicar un thesis sobre CPO o $AAOI en español si hay muchas personas que leer mi post jaja

Lo siento, mi español es malo https://t.co/qjckIzoVz6

$IBM Starling was est. 2029 (cool name btw).

Very interesting Foxconn is flagging quantum commercialization in 2030 from their conference. 2027 prototyping.

Just some helpful timelines for the $QBTS $RGTI $IONQ bros out there

Quantum is something I’m not as familiar with, but just in investing standpoints since it’s popular, maybe h2 2028, h1 2029 is a good time for quantum frontrunning unless there’s some random breakthrough?

Whatever is happening now looks way too early. Typically not a good idea to serve as the dilution in the prototyping phases.

But just sharing interesting notes I came across in terms of 2030 timelines for quantum computing commercialization timeline ests.

Per Foxconn shareholder meeting:

CPO switch products expected to begin Q3. 10K units 2026, explosive grow to next year.

Aims/expected to be #1 globally.

Anyone remember which Foxconn subsidiary handles their advanced optical work?

cough.. cough.. Shunsin (6451).

Lot of these exponentially scaling volume shipments won’t show up in balance sheet yet, but will likely soon H2.

This is called frontrunning the next supercycle.

> markets went from doubting $SIVE customers ($150m MC)

Turns out it’s likely companies eg. $JBL, Ayar, $AAPL, Defense Primes, $MRVL celestial.

> to doubting their execution ($600m mc)

Turns out you skip the capex if you go with Win Semi

> to doubting what share they get vs competitors like $LITE ($1.2B mc)

Turns out it’s likely sole source for companies like $JBL and primary suppliers for Ayar.

> to doubting their revenue opportunities ($2B MC)

Turns out they got 77% pipeline growth in just a few months

> to doubting their partners like Win Semi’s ability to scale (we are here)

Anyone who thinks Win Semi… one of the worlds most important foundries for $AVGO, $LITE, SpaceX supply chains…

can’t scale capability by 2028 is a stupid bear.

We’re at the point where US retail investors acquired the float off Swedish investors.

But I’m expecting US institutions to find a way to shake out US retail like they did with $NBIS or $RKLB before the next supercycle.

Had some more time go through $SIVE earnings transcript, it’s very bullish:

- $JBL pluggable partnership led to more optical transceiver requests for $SIVE

So maybe Innolight/Eoptolink and other large players are my guess.

- More laser capacity on top of Win Semi with more partners being developed. “When the timing is right, we will bring those details to the market.”

CEO said it’s not just Win/Glasgow. I’m already confident in Win Semi scaling capacity, given they’re critical in SpaceX / $AVGO supply chains already.

But this derisks those capacity ramp even more. Just not publicly disclosed yet.

- tremendous executive credibility and experience with U.S. markets, as well as strong M&A experience

Flagged M&A in regards to new board members, which we guessed based on their backgrounds.

- “Production orders are imminent from our lead SATCOM”…

So that’s volume ramp for space

- U.S dual listing progressing smoothly

No exact timeline, my personal guess was around late Q3 or Q4. Probably after June board meeting, they’ll announce timing since that’s when new board members come in.

- “Viewing the ecosystem vendors as competitors is the wrong way to go about it in supercycles where demand far outstrips supply.”

Too much demand in photonics

- “Over the last five months, there's been a rapid increase in the Photonics pipeline as well”

Basically 77% growth pipeline came from photonics (which validated thesis about cpo/pluggable growth vectors for sivers)

TLDR:

We moved from “can sivers get customers this small and can they compete with $LITE?”

To execution eg. “how much can sivers even produce to feed into each supercycle” as they’re volume ramping while demand > supply.”

To me that’s very positive if anything they make gets bought.

Also there’s likely to be a lot of TAM expansion in the photonics space post-M&A as well as more ongoing hyperscaler supplier qualifications hinted.

Again, revenue pipeline surged 77% in just their quarter (5m) largely from photonics… over the entire company’s history.

As CPO scales up h2 2027 onwards, I’m expecting the revenue numbers to look like an exponential curve.

I still find it funny how all the software bros are happy about a 10-15% recovery with $CRM to $FIG.

After getting wiped 25-60% of their portfolio.

Meanwhile all the AI names from $SNDK to $AAOI are casually up 200-1000%.

To be fair Trump did tell everyone to buy $DELL, multiple times this year.

He did go out and buy $1-$5M worth of Dell stock himself after all…

But should have seen this coming with Dell blowout earnings. After what happened with $INTC.

If you feel like you’re late, there’s a lot of implications to Dell’s upstream suppliers that markets might not have priced in yet.

Only thing to look at with $SIVE earnings is forward growth.

Nobody cares about pre-development contract earnings from 2025 or last quarter, especially for qualification cycle optical players.

Having 77% growth of opportunity pipelines (revenue volume ramp projections), to $799m

In a quarter is absolutely incredible growth. And, I’d expect to see that continue compounding.

“The company continues to anticipate several volume production starts within AI data centers” (photonics/lasers).

Is also very positive and validates the thesis about volume ramp for photonics.

Now next thing to look at is earnings call transcript, once they’re indexed, which is the most important signal of what’s to come.

Overall, very positive.

Just a shower thought to European media:

Maybe instead of complaining about the influx of capital.

To keep your critical companies alive and subsidize growth.

Maybe welcome it…

So you don’t keep selling off your monopolies or critical chokepoints like ficonTEC from a lack of funding to foreign countries such as China.

Especially when they’re necessary to US hyperscaler supply chains.

Few months ago, a European publication called my $RPI idea:

- “mass stupidity”

And said:

- $RPI shares would: “come crashing back to reality”

Then called it a:

- “Meme stock”.

Earnings report came out? Blew away revenue expectations.

It’s very interesting that media can just write all this slander…

Then pretend it never happened when it ages so badly.

Amount of media slander from $SOI to $SIVE has been pretty incredible.

$SIVE is the most compelling CPO/photonics exposure to me.

Addressing the disinformation: I haven’t sold and don’t plan to sell a single share.

I do think this ends up the next $80B+ $LITE one day from ~$2.1B.

And I personally have plans to acquire more ownership + support their M&A prospects.

I believe earnings transcripts will be strongly positive.

As in the part few months we’ve discovered:

> AlChip/Amazon private placements, which is positive for Ayar -> $SIVE implying Trainium 4 design in

> Wiwynn + Ayar CPO scale up

> $JBL 1.6T optical transceiver ramp with Sivers incoming faster than markets expected (with relatively dramatic moat + demand as much as they can produce)

> O-Net scaling up ELS efforts with $SIVE

> $YSS acquisition of $SIVE allspace lead partner, designing Sivers into Space defense primes

> New CHIPS ACT funding for $SIVE

> $POET H2 volume ramp and their new $50m -> $500m order (with $SIVE as light source)

> information discovery around $AAPL using $SIVE lasers for next gen consumer devices

> information discovery around links to Lightelligence (went public $10B+ MC) + Lightmatter as likely customers.

> Celestial volume ramp with $MRVL indicators.

> new customers working on TFLN with $SIVE like Lightium

> $AMD going with $GFS for CPO, and GFS listing sivers as one of two laser suppliers

> Ayar removing $MTSI / $LITE from their website and signaling $SIVE as primary source/sole source

> Ayar raising $500m for volume ramp (intel, Mediatek, Nvidia, amd etc)

> pluggable TAM expansion signaled from 2025 annual report

> Nasdaq listing expected soon

> MSCI small cap index / Nasdaq omx inclusion, making Blackrock, Vanguard and others passive buyers

> M&A signaled from 2025 annual report + 2 new board members that have experience in that area

> $NOK as likely customer from 2025 annual report.

> $LITE getting cw bottlenecked from EML contracts, $SIVE signaling capacity agreements in place with Win, making the a likely bottleneck owner + chokepoint in CPO sector.

All of this market research was done before earnings.

Any results is just confirmation of supply chain mapping done.

I don’t think anyone cares about former quarter revenue since $SIVE is an exceptionally compelling 2027 long, especially H2 onward.

Only thing I’m looking at are:

> TAM expansion of the overall photonics supercycle (eg. optical engine, ELS, pluggables) either from M&A or developments

> volume ramp expectations from existing companies

> Nasdaq listing timelines for more liquidity to support their M&A efforts

> any new customers signaled for CPO/Pluggables

Just in case people are wondering about my track record with European equities:

$RPI: $280 -> $800 (agentic AI hardware demand thesis).

$LPK: ~$6, thesis at $13 -> $24.2 (glass cores substrates close monopoly)

$SOI: $44 -> $181 (silicon photonics, monopoly over substrates)

$SIVE: $4 -> $71 (CPO, critical chokepoints over lasers).

$IQE: $12 -> $47 (latent epiwafer capacity, information discovery around downstream photonics companies).

$ALRIB: $5 -> $15 (duopoly, synthesis around quantum buyers with photonics growth verticals).

And now $XFAB at $9.

I’m not always right.

But every single one of my European longs thesis have been validated so far by either earnings, investments (eg. $MTSI in IQE) or market returns.

I genuinely think $XFAB is very compelling at $1.5B MC, despite recent volatility.

Per NIST filings stated they were the only high volume SiC foundry in America.

Making them extremely “critical infrastructure”… Verbatim from the US Gov.

And they’re the first comprehensive pure play foundry for SiC/GaN.

So it’s very compelling exposure as $NVDA pushes 800 VDC and as other power semi players from $NVTS and $WOLF are all re-rating hard.

For long term photonics exposure:

They were literally listed in CHIPS Act 2 blueprints… with $NOK / $NVDA evaluations right now.

And production ramp up in 2027/volume production H1 2028 expected.

So you have a company at $1.5B MC:

Critical both on the power semis front to the US government.

And critical to both photonics front to the EU government.

Coming off of a legacy drag cycle with auto and others (similar to Soitec).

I think I’d follow EU/US government signals for what’s critical infrastructure given expected dual continent subsidies…

Over random media analysts trying to cause unnecessary volatility saying it’s a memestock with no fundamentals.

Ayar’s announcement today with Wiwynn is potentially very material for $SIVE regarding CPO -> rack scale deployments.

As Wiwynn cloud clients include $AMZN, $META, $MSFT.

And they’ve been in talks for $GOOGL TPU deployments.

I think just for some reference architectures it’s around 512+ supernova light sourc a rack.

So if $SIVE is the primary laser array supplier (which we expect, given Macom + Lumentum was removed from Ayar’s site).

Even modest rack deployments would be very meaningful for revenue.

This is just rack scale commercialization potential right now from $SIVE / Ayar / Wiwynn, which won’t show up in revenue financials yet.

$MRVL earnings were a bullish indicator on the broader CPO theme (and $SIVE as the likely laser supplier).

- “Scale-up interconnect represents one of the newest and most strategically important opportunities emerging in AI infrastructure.”

CPO thematically go brrr

- Confirmation Celestial was selected by T1 hyperscaler for scale up.

I’ve found Celestial $AMZN warrants in the past)… so probably Amazon.

- Scale-up optics revenue next year should be more than 2x prior ~$150M outlook with Celestial

Forward revenue ramp expectations go brrr.

- Celestial team plus $MRVL optics team was a “home run”.

Marvell sees celestial as growth vector, upstream celestial suppliers go brr

- $MRVL is now focused on bringing Celestial to high volume manufacturing.

Volume ramp indicator

If you don’t recall, there was OSINT mapping $SIVE directly to Celestial, not through $POET.

So Celestial forward growth is a volume ramp indicator for Sivers lasers.

Look who joined team $NBIS.

5.6% is a pretty massive stake, maybe he realized by now it’s miles better than the dumpster fire that is $IREN.

That being said: Nebius is now up ~3x since I went long last year.

Weebius has plot armor. https://t.co/JYZvf3GJND

Bro media… how is $XFAB a meme stock?

Can you not repeat the same mistake with $RPI this time?

They’re literally getting CHIPS ACT funding from the EU because of how critical they are.

And have $NVDA / $NOK evaluating their SiPH side of things, while they traded at a low ~1.28 P/B.

This just reminded me of $SOI low p/b but high growth verticals out of legacy segment drag.

$XFAB was literally mentioned for CHIPS ACT 2 next week in the blueprints… Which focuses around photonics.

The main revenue ramp was around power semis with $NVDA pushing 800 vdc.

So $NVTS, $POWI, $WOLF and everyone have been taking off recently.

Markets just missed $XFAB, because they’re a lesser known foundry in power semis…But US Dpt. Of commerce pointed them out as the only high volume SiC foundry in the US 2Y ago.

I just happened to point out the connections.

Just because you don’t understand something, don’t just go call it a “meme stock” with price detached from fundamentals.

Interesting photonics selloff today on no news?

$LITE down -4.95%
$AAOI down -4.85%
$SIVE down -14.8%
$SOI down -5.73%
$AXTI down -8.13%
$IQE down -12.13%

I think it’s probably the most compelling theme going forward (even more than power semis).

Just tends to be very volatile on the way up.

Surprised about $AAOI though given there’s some institutional notes apparently about long term $AMD or $NVDA agreements. (Rosenblatt). Maybe $600m ATM caps some near term upside.

$SIVE as well, given EU Chips Act 2 is next week around photonics, and they’re listed on the blueprint. Same with MSCI/NASDAQ omx inflow next week.

I’ve been personally adding to positions since I have high conviction in the photonics theme (CPO especially) given TAM expansion overall next 2 years.

Just a fun observation: the only people you see complaining about free research.

Typically have massive paywalls.

And get upset others are disrupting their business models.

I get tons of institutional/hedge fund offers.

But instead of doing things for institutions only or through heavily paywalled subscriptions.

I just publish my ideas to retail investors for free.

I think it’s about time retail has a level playing field?

$XFAB (photonics + power semis) is an interesting long idea at $1.28B MC, that I took positions in.

Given EU CHIPS act 2 is today as the catalyst for European photonics players.

> 800 VDC power semi exposure to $NVDA push through $NVTS + $POWI

> Silicon Photonics / CPO exposure with $NVDA as evaluation stage for high volume manufacturing (optical transceivers/switches)

> The only high-volume SiC foundry in the US.

> One of the critical MEMS foundries

> ~1.29 P/B, which was around what $SOI was sitting at when I went long. Depressed valuations due to legacy drag

> ~6.5-8.5 fwd p/e 2028 personal est.

> backstopped by Government:

- EU CHIPS act, $128M Euros
- US CHIPS act $50M PMT (department of commerce).

With likely more coming (just signals critical importance to Western supply chains).

So at a certain point with all the grants, they’re just getting the capex funded by the Governments.

EU CHIPS act 2 is coming out this week, and I’m gonna go ahead and guess $XFAB might get included given they were before, and this package is specifically targeting photonics.

~$1.3B MC seems compelling to me if it can pull a Soitec reversal (low p/b, very high growth segments, auto legacy drag).

As for the $NVDA silicon photonics relationships it’s under “photonixFAB”.

Markets probably missed this silicon photonics relationship (like $TSEM when I went long) with Nvidia since XFab leads this… Just under a different name.

For power semis, XFAB is named for SiC + $NVTS. In PCN-22181, $POWI explicitly names XFAB as its foundry. 

Given its exposure to power semis and photonics as growth, low P/B, gov backstop (of course dyor, just sharing my personal thoughts)

Thought it personally seemed compelling.

This was the company i personally liked + have positions in.

Definitely not $DPZ.

But kinda me of Soitec in a way.

Power semi / SiPH exposure both to Nvidia ecosystems.

Photonics side eval through Nvidia right now. Power semi exposure through NVtS and powl, ~1.29 p/b, EU chips act grantee. US chips act grant ongoing.

~$1.28B MC, should be beneficiary of eu chips act round 2 today as a catalyst

I was wondering why there was an irrational amount of disinformation about $SIVE.

Turns out short sellers have been running bot farm campaigns to spread disinformation.

And likely through local news media too.

Hope they get blown apart on their short positions now. https://t.co/U3Euy391l8

Wow, 400,000 followers! Thank you everyone.

I find it fun to share ideas with everyone for free from $TSEM to $AAOI.

And especially if they end up directionally right + help others build their own conviction. https://t.co/DeEnV6SAkq

FYI, EU Chips Act 2 is today, May 27th.

This one is expected to be targeted specially around photonics.

There happens to Europe’s leading photonics/laser company called $SIVE over in Sweden.

That also received US CHIPS act funding and is critical to Western supply chains. https://t.co/Ijhnp3wIoq

These titles keep getting more and more ridiculous lol https://t.co/f8t0ApHJPu

This timeline of getting banned on $RDDT WSB for posting about $AXTI.

That stock going up thousands of percent.

Then becoming the #1 most subscribed to person on X feels kinda like a Naruto redemption arc to become hokage.

Only 12k more to go. https://t.co/J8DNEbYXpl

YTD: 4502.45%. https://t.co/rF2ACQDu8w

Win Semi (3105) is almost never mentioned in photonics analyst reports.

But they’ll probably show up as an important bottleneck for scaling lasers next year.

Glad to see Shunsin (6451) start picking up steam from my TW longs.

Foci (3363), MSSCorp (6830) should start getting some attention too imo after Computex / $NVDA conference next month.

Nextronics (8147), I personally kinda expect to 3x down the road.. once disposition is over.

5 of my favorite CPO exposure longs over in Taiwan, especially at current prices.

What’s with the influx of art history college grads in media:

Coming in with 100% certainty:

With their opinion of CW laser nuances and valuation analysis on InP substrate/crucible processing moats?

Background genuinely don’t matter if you know your stuff. But if you don’t, sometimes you get curious?

It’s funny to see their confidence scaling proportionally to what liquidity institutions need.

I’m fully convinced the Stock Market secretly revolves around building the Death Star and Battle Droids:

$RKLB / $SPCX / $PL = Death Star

$LASR / $SIVE = Laser Beams

$TSLA / Unitree = Battle Droids https://t.co/C53qKjWrS8

我现在订阅数已经有32.5K啦！

真的超级感谢大家！

照这个速度下去，我简直不敢相信自己快要超过马斯克，变成X上订阅人数第的大佬了？！

特别感谢中文圈小伙伴们最近的力挺。当然啦，也必须要感谢日韩圈的朋友们从开始就路支持我！ https://t.co/cpvb6KizDy

$SIVE is the largest beneficiary of brand new events this weekend:

1. Sivers new NASDAQ index inclusion (OMX Stockholm):

Both Vanguard and Blackrock are new passive inflows.

With ~$60M+ pure buying pressure inflow, into existing float, together with MSCI next week.

2. US Gov and Sweden sign agreement for joint tech collaboration.

$SIVE is one of the few CHIPS act recipients, and especially in Sweden.

And if you don’t remember, they received another $6.6M CHIPS act award last week.

Making $SIVE heavily supported + critical to the US government.
-

TLDR: New passive institutional inflow from your largest US institutions like Blackrock/Vanguard.

Compounded with US government backing into $SIVE. Over the weekend.

Beneficial for fundamentals (revenue/TAM from Pentagon supply chains) and inflow from Blackrock/Vanguard/MSCI/NASDAQ.

Extremely bullish.

Oh look, a new UDN article about $TSM COUPE + AI optical markets.

Institutional investors are optimistic that Taiwanese companies:

FOCI (3363), and MSScorps (6830) are expected to benefit

But... that "Institutional" should be changed to retail investors on X?

For FOCI: "Its FAU products have been developed in cooperation with TSMC for at least three years, and the specifications have been promoted to 1.6T, 3.2T, and the subsequent mass production schedule has become the focus of market observation."

For MSS: "cut into the silicon photonics and CPO detection analysis, the main "light loss detection" technology ... and launch of the silicon photonics test platform, lock in research and development, engineering verification, failure analysis and a small number of diverse test applications."

These are still two extremely small companies... and things like MSS weren't even mentioned by GS, despite the news claims about relations.

So feels like X found this early, mainstream institutions are likely about to enter after seeing this sort of confirmation.

AI capex spend is expected to go to "$3 to $4 trillion annually" by 2030 from $NVDA Jensen Huang projections.

You're not bullish enough.

And it might be a good idea to stay exposed + own the keys of the AI Kingdom:

-> $AXTI controls the materials buildout with photonics.
-> $SOI controls the AI buildout with silicon photonics.
-> $SIVE controls laser chokepoints for CPO.
-> $IQE controls Western epiwafer supply chains for photonics.

All these started off as tiny companies, yet the trillions of projected capex gradually upward to them. 

There's many more in other industries as well.

-> AI Capex flows to Neoclouds like $NBIS.
-> AI Capex flows to memory like $MU and $SNDK.

And many of the "commodity" materials or "science projects" for the past 20 years now a sudden shift in exponential TAM expansion.

We're witnessing the next industrial revolution with Artificial Intelligence + Physical AI.

All right chat, crowdsourcing your #1 highest conviction (10x only) stock long for the Power Semi trade.

Especially given $NVDA pushing shift to 800 VDC.

Stuff like $NVTS or $WOLF, but high-beta, 10x potential only. Anywhere around the world.

What's your pick? https://t.co/Y10KR6HLVC

Photonics is nuanced and using ChatGPT/Gemini makes you miss all of it:

1. $SIVE is actually a chokepoint and partially a bottleneck.

The reason it's a chokepoint is leading CPO/optical hyperscaler players go through Sivers, likely:

Ayar. Celestial. Lightmatter. Lightelligence. Poet.

If you take out Sivers, you literally can't make some of their products + delay their roadmap by years.

As many are sole/primary source but are heading the direction on multi-source.

As for the bottleneck argument: Win Semi is the bottleneck for scaling laser production.

But... the nuance is when you have capacity allocated for the next few years.

You become part of the bottleneck itself if players fight you for allocation of finished lasers.

That's the nuance people miss with capacity allocation dynamics.

It's like saying $SNDK is not part of the NAND bottleneck when Kioxia makes all of it.

But when Sandisk has the ultimate control of output supply, they become the bottleneck + have all the pricing power.

Sivers controls output supply of CW lasers given allocations, and as seen with $LITE earnings, CW laser is currently bottlenecked as everyone seems to be stuck producing EMLs.

2. Like how LLMs always uses em-dashes.

You can tell when people use AI when they always use the same "CW is a dumb interchangeable laser" argument or compare "power" specs after conflating different architectures.

That's why your "analysts" using AI will get this wrong over and over.

There's CW lasers... and then there's a specific architectural design that Sivers achieves with DFB lasers.

If you compare power specs with $LITE vs. Sivers, Lumentum wins in isolation. But they're completely different laser architectures.

All the leading CPO players like Ayar, chose $SIVE for an architectural reason for high power, low thermal, laser arrays. $JBL 1.6T LRO also made one of the most dramatic moats cited by their fireside chat, using Sivers lasers.

If you think CW lasers are interchangeable with Sumitomo/Furukawa, and others. And can be plug-and-play... i don't know what to tell you?

Again: $SIVE makes architecturally unique CW lasers for leading CPO players.

3. I'm not sure how many times I need to say this:

$SIVE for 2024-2025 has been going through development contracts. People using TTM revenue or former P/S metrics are using completely the wrong metrics, when there's volume ramp in 2027.

It's the same with $AAOI which volume ramps in H1 2027.

$AEHR which volume ramps after qualification.

$LPK that volume ramps after qualification.

This is just missing qualification cycles in semiconductors and how to model financials currently.

As for the $LITE comparisons (which was also my long last year):

$LITE literally started off selling laser dies before acquisition of Cloud Lite and other downstream optical engine components.

This is where $SIVE is at today with starting off in the laser chokepoint for CPO:

People are modeling laser revenue off very isolated TAM projections. Meanwhile Sivers is targeting M&A to expand revenue for TAM projections.

This is not a simple component FAU + ramp valuation modeling over with a Taiwanese company.

Since Laser companies like $LITE, $COHR are known to downstream expand to make their lasers more valuable, then vertically integrate (fabs, assembly) afterward.

Again, Sivers worked with Ayar and these types of companies before they all became billion dollar companies. I have high conviction knowing they know what to acquire down the ELS/optical engine stack + pluggable transceiver for TAM expansion.

It's just annoying when I get people who don't understand the nuances backseat commenting wrong things about my longs.

I got the same thing about $AXTI is not a bottleneck! InP isn't needed! China! back at $14.

Now it's $140

I got the same thing about $AAOI "is going down 50%!" back at $65. or "AOI management is shady at $30".

Now it's $170

I got the "there's nothing new with $SOI" back at $45.

Now it's $170.

I think I'm one of the few who actually understands the nuances with photonics, since I did call out $LITE, $TSEM, Innolight, $AXTI, $AAOI, $SOI, that outperformed both photonics markets and overall markets over the past year.

And now I'm long on $SIVE.

Well, looks like Iran War is about to end.

Markets/Indexes are probably going like this Monday.

Probably even better for Europe/Taiwan/Korean equities that were dragged down more from oil fears.

If something goes up during this time… probably goes higher in better macro. https://t.co/kZQ5r0IzZd

Wow, I've reached 30,000 paid subscribers.

Thank you everyone! Catching up to Elon Musk.

Only 17,000 more to go...

Then I reach my goal of becoming #1 on the entire X platform! https://t.co/TStifVRgG9

I love how pointing out that ideas and market percentage validation.

Matter more than net worth.

Triggered all the “trust me I’m rich” grifters selling expensive paywalls or courses.

It’s good retail is starting to wake up if the older models feel threatened.

People in Sweden always like:

“How does $SIVE have so little employees and can do all of this” vs. $LITE?

Turns out… You can build the most valuable IP in the world if ~1/4th your entire workforce are PHDs. https://t.co/oVlJJ9OEaZ

2 Year Return: 22,561.99%

Pretty decent, right anon? https://t.co/snVfKQ5nqm

Feels like $FUTU and $TIGR are kinda screwed? The Chinese Gov is going after their historical revenues.

There's basically no fair law in China (esp. with IP), so if Gov wants something done, courts will be rigged against them.

So no chance of an appeal, unless they make a hidden deal. Also don't think the brokerages are able to pull a $GOOGL like their 20 decillion fine, given local operations

So TLDR: Good lesson learned to avoid Chinese exposure from $BABA to $PDD as much as possible...

And (as seen with $META + Manus + this case), even if something looks cheap.

There's a reason why all the US equities have premiums, even if a little high.

European quantum/optical/glass chokepoints go BRRR?

$ALRIB +8.35%
$LPK +3.21%
$IQE +5.68%
$SOI +4.98%

As a side thought, it’s a nice vote of confidence to retail that the LPKF CEO bought shares off the market.

More CEOs should do the same, even if it’s small. https://t.co/BwxBnd2wDm

$RKLB $90M US Space Force contract.

Not much revenue, but implication/narratives go brrr with the US space buildup.

Fun to see before the SpaceX IPO as well. https://t.co/jamx5EHans

Out of any market I’ve interacted with:

The Korean market is the most degen

Why are there so many influencers just rewriting my old posts with AI?

Prompt: "Copy Serenity's old posts... output it re-written"

Or even the same thing... just in a different language.

IDM too much if you're doing this, but at least have your AI add original takes.

Just in case you want to frontrun the next major catalyst:

$NVDA June 1 Computex/GTC Taipei keynote should be heavily bullish Taiwan optical ecosystem?

Just like when I went long on $TSEM and others in Nvidia’s US event.

Shunsin, Foci, Nextronics, MSScorps, and a lot of my Nvidia photonics ecosystem port might be critical mentions or have indirect catalysts there.

There's some things in the market that don't make much sense.

$RDDT is the perfect example post-earnings.

One of the most profitable names right now with high growth...

But if it's related to software or not burning $1T+ in AI capex, markets don't care? https://t.co/uWJ55OuZMO

I NEED TO HIDE LIKE 100 COMMENTS PER POST, SOMEONE AT X PLEASE FIX THIS. https://t.co/vyhfuDiato

Yeah I'm not sure all the shorts on $TE is a good idea...

When the OpenAI runway model likely has enough to buy the entire company.

That being said:

Anyone remember I predicted Faker to win worlds, and they actually did? https://t.co/F9ugI8M2Vb

“Jeff Bezos says low earners in the US should pay zero tax”

I actually agree this this with some nuance on implementation:

Low earners should be allowed to deduct all their living expenses before paying tax.

Just like how the wealthy are able to write off a lot of things as business expenses or tax sheltered structures:

Majority of “living costs” for low income citizens come from rent, healthcare, food, gas, car loans/college tuition, kids, etc.

Even after all that they’re paying tax on their original income.

Feels a little stupid to have low income earners owe money after just trying to live.